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Golden Globes 2017: Picks & Predictions

January 8, 2017

globes

Tonight’s the night in the City of Stars: the Golden Globe Awards! Here are my predictions and preferences in the major categories (with highlighted links to my longer reviews).

Best Motion Picture — Drama
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Should win: Hell or High Water

Will win: Manchester by the Sea

If there’s a dark horse, it’s Lion, which may appeal more to the Hollywood Foreign Press with its international focus than the very American Manchester by the Sea.

 

Best Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy
20th Century Women
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Sing Street

Should win: La La Land

Will win: La La Land

The lighter-than-air musical will waltz away with the Globe since it doesn’t compete with weightier entries like Manchester and Moonlight. Winning the Best Picture Oscar will be a heavier lift, where Hidden Figures is coming up fast on the outside.

 
Best Director — Motion Picture
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Should win: Tom Ford

Will win: Mel Gibson

The Globes are all about manufacturing great TV moments, and giving the award to Gibson — and forgiving him for his many public and private trespasses — is a shiny opportunity the Foreign Press won’t be able to resist.

 
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture — Drama
Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie

Should win: Amy Adams

Will win: Natalie Portman

I found Jackie to be ghoulishly awful, but Globes voters will probably eat up Portman’s hammy accent and the chance to see her up on stage pregnant and accepting another award, just like she did for Black Swan a few years ago.

 
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture — Drama
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

Should win: Denzel Washington

Will win: Casey Affleck

The conventional wisdom is it’s Affleck the younger’s year (despite the sexual harassment stories that have bubbled under the surface in recent weeks). No question he was great in Manchester, but Washington is downright magnificent in Fences.

 
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture — Comedy or Musical
Colin Farrell, The Lobster
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Jonah Hill, War Dogs
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

Should win: Ryan Gosling

Will win: Ryan Gosling

Gosling’s charming turn dances circles around his competitors, but he may not be able to keep up with more serious competition from Affleck at the Oscars.

 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture — Comedy or Musical
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Lily Collins, Rules Don’t Apply
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Should win: Emma Stone

Will win: Annette Bening

This is a two-woman contest, and it’s a toss-up. If La La Land sweeps the night, Stone could get caught up in the whirlwind, but Bening is a longtime Globes fave (having been nominated eight times and won twice).

 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals

Should win: Jeff Bridges

Will win: Mahershala Ali

This is a strong category — although I would’ve nominated Nocturnal Animals‘ Michael Shannon over Aaron Taylor-Johnson. But Ali’s got the big mo for Moonlight, and his winning work in Hidden Figures will put him over the top.

 
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Should win: Viola Davis

Will win: Viola Davis

Forget about it. This is as close to a lock as the Globes ever gets. Never mind Davis should be competing in the Best Actress category. She destroys in Fences.

 
Best Screenplay — Motion Picture
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By the Sea
Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water

Should win: Taylor Sheridan

Will win: Kenneth Lonergan

It’s a tight contest between Chazelle, Jenkins and Lonergan, but Manchester is nothing if not a writer’s movie and the playwright Lonergan will take the final bow.

 
Best Original Score — Motion Picture
Nicholas Britell, Moonlight
Justin Hurwitz, La La Land
Jóhann Jóhannsson, Arrival
Volker Bertelmann and Dustin O’Halloran, Lion
Benjamin Wallfisch, Pharrell Williams, and Hans Zimmer, Hidden Figures

Should win: La La Land

Will win: La La Land

Three little words: La. La. Land.

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One Comment
  1. I disagree about Denzel, who I think gives a stage bound performance in a movie that he fails to open up as a director. It seems a little to rehearse for me, in comparison to Viola’s seething almost improvised intensity. I’m not a big fan of the screenplay or direction to Manchester, but you might be right. And I think I would give actor to Colin Farrell

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